24Liberty.com: 24 Races For Liberty, Part XV: IN-8 (Open)

“Indiana’s 8th congressional district, or The Bloody Eighth as it is it locally (and sometimes nationally) referred, is a district of the United States Congress in southwestern and west central Indiana. Based in Evansville, it was widened when Indiana lost a seat after the 2000 Census to include much of the former 5th and 7th Districts. At that time, Bloomington (the home of former representative Frank McCloskey) was moved into the 9th District, while the 8th was extended northward to include much of the former 7th district in west-central Indiana, including Terre Haute. As a result of this expansion, the district is the largest in area in Indiana with all or part of 18 Indiana Counties.”

The district has been nicknamed the “Bloody Eighth” because of a series of hard-fought tight campaigns and political reversals in addition to the district’s reputation of frequently ousting its incumbents. It ousted six incumbents from 1966 to 1982. The election in 1984 was so close that it was decided in Congress. The Eight Districts consists largely of both moderate Republicans and Blue-Dog Democrats both which could go either way. In many cases the Democrats on the local level are often more conservative than the Republicans.

“In 2000, a New York Times reporter said of the district: “With a populist streak and a conservative bent, this district does not cotton to country-club Republicans or to social-engineering liberals,” and also said “More than 95 percent white and about 41 percent rural, the region shares much of the flavor of the Bible Belt.”

“It is currently represented by Brad Ellsworth, a conservative Democrat. As a result of Ellsworth’s landslide defeat of 12-year incumbent John Hostettler, it was the first district picked up by the Democrats on election night, 2006.”

According to Wiki, “On February 19, 2010, Brad Ellsworth announced his candidacy in the 2010 U.S. Senate election for the seat in the United States Senate that is currently held by Democrat Evan Bayh, who will not be seeking re-election.” With Ellsworth’s seat “open” we’ll skip a review of his record and just take a look at where things are now in the race for this House seat in 2010.

Primaries were held in Indiana on May 4. On the Democrat side, St. Rep. Trent Van Haaften got the nod to face off in the General against GOP primary winner Larry D. Bucshon.

CQ Politics (now calling this race a “Leans Republican”) says this about IN-8:

Given the Republican leanings of this district, the national environment and the strength of Republican nominee Larry Bucshon, state Rep. Trent Van Haaften does not appear well-positioned to hold this seat for Democrats.

The National Republican Congressional Committee had named Bucshon to the lowest tier of its Young Guns program prior to his primary win, and the committee has since promoted him to the top tier. A parade of national and state Republican officials have campaigned with the doctor since then, including House Minority Leader John Boehner (Ohio), Gov. Mitch Daniels and House Republican Conference Chairman Mike Pence (Ind.).

A look at the polls on DC Political Report shows Bucshon well ahead in this race…and our House Wiki page bears this out with every major indicator pointing to a likely Bucshon victory. The WaPo map indicates Bucshon is a little behind in dollars, but there seems to be no reason to think (as with so many other of these 24 seats we’ve been focusing on) that money has very much to do with the final outcome(s).

The RealClear Politics analysis is consistent with all the other indicators in suggesting this is a “Leans Republican” race, but the commentary is worth sharing here. They point out that Ellsworth would likely have been re-elected to this seat had he stayed in the race…but with his departure:

[t]he result is an open seat that Democrats have to defend in some uncomfortable territory, in an unwelcoming environment.

“Uncomfortabe territory…unwelcoming environment” – I wonder how that happened to our poor, defenseless Democrat friends.

We shouldn’t get “too” comfortable with this race…stranger things have happened. Please go to Larry Bucshon’s DONATE page and consider a donation…as always, donate now and donate often. We can’t rest until November 3…and even then only for a brief respite. After that, we need to start holding these folks accountable to the promises they’ve and and the actions they’ll be taking.

[Note: This article originates at Liberty.Com]